UK break-up on the cards

Wee Nicola Sturgeon is demanding another independence vote north of the wall, not ‘The Wall’ aka Game of Thrones but the less formidable Hadrian’s Wall. The last time there was a Scottish independence Scots were told this was a chance in a live time to win freedom but they voted to stay in the union.

Three years later the plan is to get to the polls again with the catalyst being Brexit and the fact Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain part of the European Union. Along with Northern Ireland who also voted to stay in the EU and after the Sinn Fein victory in the recent poll are beginning to talk independence. Wales voted to leave with England.

But Scotland have line themselves to go into battle first. A battle they may win but they will have a long cold wait to join the EU if they ever do because two members of the club will vote against them joining, the Spanish and the Dutch. Both have trouble with separatists in there countries who are looking for independence.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is using Brexit to justify this new vote, which must be given the go ahead by the UK government with no guarantee it would happen before Brexit is finalised. Sturgeon and the SNP are looking to hold the vote between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.

So what do we have? Scotland with no guarantee about their future if they do vote for independence and since the last time the oil and gas prices have fallen which was the backbone of the SNP economy. If they did win themselves independence at what price! Bye London, hello Brussels, hi to the euro, and plenty of EU interference. Things may have worsened north of the border but Sturgeon and the SNP are committed to pulling out of the union whatever the economic consequences if they can convince the voters.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will press the button on launching Article 50 at the end of the month with a two-year window for its completion or sooner if the negotiation go well, that is doubtful. By hoping to have the vote before the UK, leaves the SNP are looking to exploit the uncertainty of the Brexit negotiations. The SNP has warned Theresa May not to slam the brakes on a second independence referendum amid a growing belief the Prime Minister will try to delay it until after Brexit.

There will be no deals if Scotland if they did manage to join they would not get a rebate like the one the UK government received and with suggests of a two tire EU Scotland will fall in the bottom tire. Germany and France will be in charge over the other members. Also, Scotland does 64 percent of its business with the rest of the U.K. In other words, the U.K. single market is currently worth a lot more to the Scottish economy than the European one.

Interesting times ahead in UK politics.